A fixed price you can defend.
Every fixed-bid job is a bet. napkin makes the odds visible: estimate in ranges instead of single numbers, simulate the job 10,000 times, and quote a price that covers it 4 times out of 5.
Drag the handles. This is the real calculation, not an illustration.
Quote 20.5 days and you cover the job in about 80% of outcomes. Quote your 12-day guess and you cover it in 36%.
Interactive once the page finishes loading.
One number is a bet you did not know you placed.
Fixed-price work goes wrong in the same three ways, every time.
The estimate was your best case
Asked for one number, people give the version where nothing goes wrong. That is not a forecast, it is a hope — and it is the number that ends up in the contract.
The work you forgot is not small
Setup, waiting, rework, the second site visit. The tasks nobody lists are the ones that eat the margin, because they were never priced at all.
You never found out by how much
Without recording what the job actually took, the next estimate repeats the same error. Ten years of experience becomes the same year, ten times.
How napkin works
Four steps. The maths is free on every account.
Break the job down
Start from a template for your trade, or from scratch. Checklists surface the tasks that usually get missed before you have priced anything.
Estimate in ranges
For each piece of work, give three numbers: optimistic, most likely, pessimistic. Three numbers you half-know beat one number you invented.
Add the risks that are not certain
Ground harder than expected. A client who changes their mind. Name each one, give it a likelihood and an impact, and it goes into the simulation instead of into your stomach.
Commit at a confidence level you chose
napkin runs the whole job 10,000 times and shows the spread. Price at P80 and you cover the job in 4 runs out of 5. You pick the number, and you can say why.
Built for people who bid alone
One estimator, real money on the line, no estimating department to check the sums. Template packs carry the tasks, rates and risks of your trade.
Software development
Fixed-bid projects, integrations and rebuilds — where the unknown is scope, not weather.
Landscaping
Patios, driveways and planting, with spoil bulking, access and utility scans already on the checklist.
Custom furniture and bespoke art
Commissioned work where materials, revisions and finishing time all carry their own range.
It gets better at your work as you go
When a job is done, napkin walks the breakdown and asks what each piece actually took. Then it shows you where you were wrong and by how much — whether your ranges were too narrow, which risks fired, how optimistic you run. That calibration feeds the next estimate. Most estimating tools forget the job the moment you send the quote.
Price your next job with the odds in front of you.
- 3 active projects
- 25 AI assists a month
- Full simulation, no limits on the maths
- No card required